Obstetrics_gynecology · Delivery date prediction from obstetric ultrasound

Delivery Date AI

Ultrasound AI

FDARetrospective

The first device in a new FDA class, granted in February 2026: software that turns a routine scan into a predicted delivery date for pregnancies that arrive without reliable dating. One company-co-authored paper reports an R-squared of 0.92 against actual days to delivery. The FDA pivotal study and the FDA's decision summary are not public yet. The labelling excludes the use the paper is mostly about, preterm-birth risk.

Performance Metrics

0.92R-SQUARED, DAYS TO DELIVERY (V4)All births; 0.85 (V1), 0.88 (V3); Patel et al., J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2025 (PMID 40717019)
19.99 daysMAE, SPONTANEOUS PRETERM (V4)Mean absolute error vs actual days to delivery; R-squared 0.48 for spontaneous preterm alone in V1 (PAIR study)
39% / 93%PRETERM SENSITIVITY / SPECIFICITY (V1)AUC 0.757; a use the FDA labelling excludes (special control 4(vii)(A), DEN250007)
1,209HELD-OUT VALIDATION PATIENTS21% of 5,714 women, University of Kentucky 2017–2021; outcomes blinded by a third-party monitor (PAIR study)

Clinical Evidence

The published record is a single paper, and the manufacturer is on it. Patel and colleagues (Journal of Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine 2025), with Ultrasound AI's founder Robert Bunn as third author, describe the PAIR study at the University of Kentucky: 5,714 women who delivered between 2017 and 2021, 19,940 ultrasound examinations and 877,141 images. Images from 79 per cent of the cohort (4,505 patients) trained a [[deep-learning]] model to estimate days until delivery. The remaining 21 per cent (1,209 patients) was held out, with delivery outcomes blinded from the model by an independent third-party data monitor. Preterm birth rates were 18.4 per cent in training and 18.6 per cent in validation. The first version explained most of the variance in delivery timing for term births (R-squared 0.90) and for term plus spontaneous preterm births together (0.88), but little of it for spontaneous preterm birth alone (0.48). Classified as a preterm-birth test, that version had 39 per cent [[sensitivity]], 93 per cent [[specificity]] and an area under the curve of 0.757. The abstract reports that mean absolute error was similar across the trimesters assessed, without giving the day counts. Three retrainings followed, the last two drawing on a further 1,165,618 images from the same centre to 2023. R-squared for all births rose from 0.85 (version 1) to 0.88 (version 3) and 0.92 (version 4). For spontaneous preterm birth the version 4 mean absolute error was 19.99 days. The manufacturer's clinician FAQ, citing the same study, gives a version 4 mean absolute error of 12.90 days for all births and 10.76 to 15.06 days by trimester. The full paper could not be retrieved for this review, so those figures are not checked. The authors conclude that the model predicts timing until delivery from ultrasound alone and predicts preterm delivery with limited sensitivity. The FDA validation is described only by the manufacturer. Its website states that the pivotal study enrolled 247 women in the cleared population. The model's mean absolute error was 15.22 days (95% CI 13.67 to 16.77), against 36.41 days (32.88 to 39.94) for Hadlock biometric dating, which beat a prespecified 7-day superiority margin (p<0.001). The same page reports the cohort as 62.8 per cent obese, 63.2 per cent White and 31.8 per cent Black, with Asian and Hispanic women under-represented. The design, sites and model version are not stated. The results are not in a peer-reviewed paper, and the De Novo decision summary is not posted. Three gaps shape the grade. The only published study is retrospective, single-centre and company-co-authored. The pivotal figures cannot yet be checked against a public source. And the FDA's special controls require the labelling to state that the output is not intended to predict or assess the risk of preterm birth, which is the outcome most of the paper is about. One De Novo grant and one published study earn a single AurisMark. Two marks would need public prospective evidence in the cleared population, or documented broad uptake, and neither exists yet.

StudyDesignnSensitivitySpecificityAUCPublished
Patel N, O'Brien J, Bunn R, et al. (PAIR study; University of Kentucky with Ultrasound AI; company co-author)
RetrospectiveRetrospective
1,20939% (preterm birth, version 1)93% (preterm birth, version 1)0.757 (preterm birth, version 1)J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2025;38(1):2532099, online 27 July 2025 (PMID 40717019). Held-out validation set of 1,209 patients (21% of 5,714; 19,940 exams, 877,141 images in the whole cohort), outcomes blinded by an independent data monitor. Days-to-delivery R-squared 0.90 term, 0.88 term plus spontaneous preterm, 0.48 spontaneous preterm alone (V1); all-births R-squared 0.85 (V1) to 0.88 (V3) to 0.92 (V4) after retraining with a further 1,165,618 images to 2023; spontaneous-preterm MAE 19.99 days (V4). Figures from the PubMed abstract.

Inside the algorithm

Editorial feature

How Delivery Date AI reaches a date.

Five stages — from raw input to verdict — drawn from manufacturer documentation and the public regulatory record.

  1. INGEST
  2. NORMALISE
  3. DETECT
  4. LOCALISE
  5. VERDICT

Stage 01 · INGEST

The scan the patient already had.

The input is a standard obstetric ultrasound examination, uploaded to the manufacturer's cloud service as DICOM still images. The cleared window is 14 0/7 to 36 6/7 weeks in a singleton pregnancy, in a woman aged 18 or over whose dating is unreliable and whose gestational age has been placed in that range by clinical signs such as fundal height or a fetal heartbeat. Development used images from one centre: 877,141 images from 5,714 women, 79 per cent of whom formed the training set for the first model, and a further 1,165,618 images for later versions. The manufacturer says most standard ultrasound machines are compatible with convex, micro-convex and transvaginal probes. The grant letter requires the labelling to list the compatible hardware and protocols.

Input

Standard pregnancy ultrasound images

Inference

Per examination, cloud

Inside the Auris+ Listing

Five more sections complete this device’s Auris+ Listing.

  • Decision Ledger

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  • Clinical Evidence Deep Dive

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  • Peer-Reviewed Publications

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  • Post-Market & Regulatory Conditions

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    Pro unlocks the post-market surveillance summary, recall record, and the conditions of approval that bound real-world use.

  • AI Algorithm Version History

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Regulatory Approvals

FDA
Delivery Date AI — De Novo grant (product code SHE)

DEN250007

Class II

Source ↗

Safety Record

No safety alerts or recalls on record.

The device has been marketable in the US since 11 February 2026. openFDA returned no adverse-event report, recall or enforcement action for the product, the manufacturer or product code SHE as of 13 September 2026 (data release 31 August 2026). The grant letter names the risks the FDA weighed: inappropriate management from a date that is significantly early or late, inconsistent output across acquisition equipment and settings, and users reading the predicted date as if it were the gestational age. The mitigations are clinical performance testing, software validation, labelling and a post-market performance management plan that must monitor real-world performance and tell users what the current performance is.

Intended Use & Indications

Per the FDA De Novo grant letter (DEN250007, 11 February 2026), Delivery Date AI is a post-processing software designed to analyze pregnancy ultrasound images using machine learning techniques. It analyzes raw images to provide healthcare practitioners with a Predicted Delivery Date (PDD) in women without a reliable estimated delivery date. The software estimates the predicted delivery date for a singleton pregnancy and should be used as an aid in clinical judgment, alongside standard methods for assessing gestational age. It processes entire images, which include fetal and maternal characteristics. The intended population is women 18 years of age or older with a singleton pregnancy at or beyond 14 0/7 weeks through 36 6/7 weeks gestation who lack a reliable estimated delivery date because of an unreliable last menstrual period (irregular cycles, spotting mistaken for menses, recent hormonal contraception) or no first-trimester ultrasound, with the pregnancy verified to be within the indicated range by clinical indicators such as fundal height or a fetal heartbeat. It is a prescription device under 21 CFR 801.109.